It is up to you Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

It is up to you - Coursework Example The main components of syuzhet, often translated as plot or the presentation of the story, include actions, scenes and episodes and their distribution in such a way that these make sense and are interconnected, providing ease to understanding of audience. Mostly the syuzhet articulated in good films and dramas are those which describe exposition of characters, dispute, climax and ending of the story. Exposition of characters may be sometimes delayed and distributed across the whole film. Artists usually design syuzhet in such a way that it grasps attention of audience, and strengthens the gaps between cause-effect chains of a fabula. The syuzhets that provide knowledge about the characters such as family, location, profession, values, and class, among others, are usually selected. Events which seems expalinatory and communicative, are usually implied when designing syuzhet’s presentation of fabula, thereby interlinking the events seprated on a temporal or spatial scale. Provid ing details regarding main events and characters through syuzhet in a film untangle the complexity of fabula, grab the interest of audience and increase their curiosity about the end of story. Bordwell, David: Principles of narration. In: Philip Simpson ... [et al.] (eds.): Film theory: critical concepts in media and cultural studies. Vol. 2. London [etc.]: Routledge, 2004, 5. 245-267. [Ursprà ¼nglich in: David Bordwell: Narration in the fiction film. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1985, 5.

Nationalisation of Oil Industry Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Nationalisation of Oil Industry - Essay Example However, Argentina has been forced recently to reverse its earlier decision to privatize the company by nationalizing 51% of YPF (Minder 2012). This move has been met with a lot of fury from Spain and other major stakeholders who are strongly opposed to move if media reports are anything to go by. The nationalization has been termed a forced purchase. As a result, the Argentine government is required to pay for Rapsol shares. Tracy (2012) reported that the Argentine government made such a move because of Rapsol’s continued failure to invest in gas and oil production in the country, a scenario that has forced Argentina to over-rely on imports to keep up with its high internal demand. For instance, Tracy (2012) reveals that Argentina spent over $9.4 billion in 2011 to import energy from other countries. This was despite the fact that Argentina is considered one of the countries with the largest hydrocarbon reserves in the world. The privatization of YPF snatched away the control of the government over oil and gas usage in the country. It is important for the Argentine government to understand that nationalization of oil supplies in the country has both its advantages and disadvantages. Advantages of Nationalisation to Argentine Government Oil and gas are commodities that contribute massively to the development of the economy of Argentina. As such they are products that should never be in shortage especially now that they are on high demand almost throughout the year. The Argentine government needs to ensure that no shortage of gas and oil is experienced in the country for their economic importance and therefore needs to be in control of the supply of the commodities. One of the main advantages of the move by the Argentine government to nationalize YPF is that it will give the government power to control how gas and oil is utilized in the country. Privatization takes these powers away from the government as has been the case since the Argentine government p rivatized YPF by selling it to the Spanish company, Rapsol. As Tracy (2012) states, the privatization of this YPF gave Rapsol absolute control of how gas and oil are used in Argentina. However, since Rapsol has not been able to adequately invest in equipment to boost productivity as was expected, Argentina has had to depend on energy imports from other countries, this despite its massive potential to produce its own energy. Nationalizing the company will give the argentine government control over the country’s oil and gas resources thereby enabling the government to invest in the petroleum industry and hence reducing its dependency on oil imports. Secondly, nationalization of the company will be of great advantage to the Argentine government in the sense that it will enable the Argentine government to be able to invest heavily in its oil and gas reserves so as to increase the production of oil and gas in the country. Doing this will enable the country become energy sufficient and avoid or reduce its import of energy as noted by Porter (2001). This is based on the fact Argentina is one of the countries that experiencing high-energy demand in the country. However, just as Tracy (2012) pointed out, privatisation of YPF interferes with the sector that used to supply much of Argentina’s gas and oil. As earlier indicated, Argentina spent over $9.4 billion dollars in 2011 alone because of energy shortage in the country. However, a closer look at what caused this shortage points at the inefficiency of

Computer History and Development Essay Example for Free

Computer History and Development Essay The dictionary defines a computer as an electronic device for storing and processing data, typically in binary form, according to instructions given to it in a variable program. Primarily created to compute; however, modern day computers do much more today: supermarket scanners calculate consumers groceries bill, while keeping track of store inventory; computerized telephone switching centers play traffic cop to millions of calls, keeping lines of communication untangled; and automatic teller machines let’s banking transactions to be conducted from virtually anywhere in the world. Technology has been around for a centuries; growing rapidly year by year. One of the most important items Technology has produced is computers. The Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer also known as ENIAC was regarded as the first general purpose electronic computer. What came before the ENIAC; well, there is the abacas which some consider the first computer. Created over 5000 years ago in Asia and is still in use today. Using a system of sliding beads arranged on a rack, users are allowed to make computations. In early times, the abaca was used to keep trading transactions; until, this became obsolete with the introduction of pencil and paper. Within the next twelve centuries emerged a significant advancement in computer technology. The year was 1642, when Blaise Pascal, the 18 year-old son of a French tax collector, invented the numerical wheel calculator, also known as the â€Å"Pascaline. † Pascaline was a brass rectangular box that used eight movable dials to add sums up to eight figures long. This device was great and became popular in Europe; the only drawback was the limits to addition (Pascals calculator, 2010, para. ). Another event that epitomizes the Pascaline machine came from an inventor by the name of Gottfried Wilhem von Leibniz; a German mathematician and philosopher in the 1600’s. Gottfried Wilhem von Leibniz added to Pascline by creating a machine that could also multiply. Like its predecessor, Leibnizs mechanical multiplier worked by a system of gears and dials. Original notes and drawings from the Pascline machine were used to help refine his machine. The core of the machine was its stepped-drum gear design. However, mechanical calculators did not gain widespread use until the early 1800’s. Shortly after, a Frenchman, Charles Xavier Thomas de Colmar invented a machine that could perform the four basic arithmetic functions. The arithometer, Colmars mechanical calculator, presented a more practical approach to computing because it could add, subtract, multiply and divide. The arithometer was widely used up until the First World War. Although later inventors refined Colmars calculator, together with fellow inventors Pascal and Leibniz, he helped define the age of mechanical computation. The real beginnings of computers that we use today came in the late 1700’s, thanks to Charles Babbage with the invention of the Analytical Engine. Babbage machine was a steam powered machine; although, it was never constructed it outlined basic elements of a modern general computer. Several more inventors added to machines that were out in the late 1800’s to help pave the way for the first generation of computers (1945-1956) (LaMorte, C Lilly J, 2010, para. 4). Wars had a great deal in the advancement of modern computers; the Second World War governments sought out to develop computers to exploit potential strategic importance. Therefore, in 1941 a German engineer Konrad Zuse had developed the Z3. The Z3 was created to design airplanes and missiles (Computer History Museum Timeline of Computer History, 2010, para. 3). Another computer that was created for war times was the ENIAC, first commissioned for the use in World War II, but not completed until one year after the war had ended. It was installed at the University of Pennsylvania, with a partnership alongside the U. S. government, its 40 separate eight-foot-high racks and 18,000 vacuum tubes were intended to help calculate ballistic trajectories. There was also 70,000 resistors and more than 4 million soldered joints; truly a massive piece of machinery that consumed around 160 kilowatts of electrical power. This is enough energy to dim the lights in an entire section of Philadelphia. This computer was a major development with speeds 1000 times faster than the current Mark I. For the next 40 years John von Neumann along with the University of Pennsylvania team kept on initiating new concepts into the computer design. With the combined genius of all the personnel they continued with new products such as the central processing unit (CPU) and also the UNIVAC. The Universal Automatic Computer (UNIVAC) became one of the first commercially available computers to take advantage of the CPU. This helped out the U. S. Census bureau. First generation computers were characterized by the fact that operating instructions were made-to-order for the specific task for which the computers were to be used. Computers had different binary-coded program called a machine language that told it how to operate. This made the computer difficult to program and limited its versatility and speed. Other distinctive features of first generation computers were the use of vacuum tubes, which were known for their breathtaking size, and magnetic drums for data storage (LaMorte, C Lilly J, 2010, para. 10). The second generation of computers, from 1956-1963, began the age of smaller computers. With the invention of the transistor in 1948, bulky vacuum tube in televisions, radios and computers were all replaced. The transistor became available in a working computer in 1956, and the size of computers has been shrinking ever since (LaMorte, C Lilly J, 2010, para. 13). Along with smaller computers the transistors paved the way for faster, more reliable and more energy-efficient products; thanks in part to the advances made to the magnetic-core memory. The first to take advantage of this new found technology was the early supercomputer, from IBM and LARC. These supercomputers were in demand by atomic scientist because the enormous amount of data that these computers could handle. By 1965, most big business processed financial information using second generation computers. With the second generation computer came new career opportunities such as programmer, analyst, and computer systems expert. Although, transistors was and improvement over the vacuum tube, they still generated a lot of heat, which damaged sensitive internal parts of the computer; the quartz rock eliminated this problem (LaMorte, C Lilly J, 2010, para. 16). Third generation computers (1964-1971) began with Engineer Jack Kilby, with Texas Instruments, developing the IC (Integrated Circuit) in the mid 1900’s. The IC combined three components onto a small silicon disc, which was mad from the quartz. Later on scientist were able to fit even more electronic components onto a single chip, called a semiconductor. As a result, computers became smaller as more components were fitted on these chips. The third generation computer gave birth to the operating system. This allowed machines to run different programs all at once with a central program that coordinated and monitored the computer’s memory (LaMorte, C Lilly J, 2010, para. 16). With the fourth generation of computer’s (1971-2000) only thing to do was to go down in size. There were three major chips that helped with computer downsizing the LSI, VLSI, and ULSI. Large scale integration (LSI) could fit hundreds of components onto one chip. Very large integration (VLSI) could fit hundreds of thousands of components onto one chip. Ultra-large scale integration (ULSI) could fit millions of components onto chips (LaMorte, C Lilly J, 2010, para. 17). The size and prices of computers went down due to the fact, that so much was able to be put into an a area about half the size of a U. S. dime. Intel, which was founded in 1968, developed the Intel 4004 chip in 1971, which would become standard in everyday house hold items such as microwaves, television sets and automobiles. With such condensed power allowed for a new market, everyday people. Computers were no longer just developed exclusively for large business or government contracts. It was the late 1900’s, when computer manufacturers sought to bring computers to a more general consumer. These smaller and sleek computers came with a more user-friendly software packages such as word processing and spreadsheet programs. Early company who took advantage of selling these more user friendly computers was Commodore, Radio Shack, and Apple Computers. In 1981, IBM launched its personal computer for multi-purpose use in the home, office, and schools. IBM made the personal computer even more affordable and the numbers increased rapidly within the next year. Personal computer usage more than doubled, going from 2 million in 1981 to 5. 5 million in 1982. Fast forward 10 years later, there are 65 million PC’s owned by general consumers. With the introduction of Human Computer Interface (HCI), users could now control the screen cursor using a mouse mimicking one hands movement instead of typing every instruction. Smaller computers became more powerful, especially in the workplace, were they could be linked together to share memory space, software, and communicate with each other. This was achieved using telephone lines or direct wiring called a Local Area Network (LAN) (LaMorte, C Lilly J, 2010, para. 20). The fifth generation of computers (Present and Beyond) is a generation that is in the works of some great advancements in computer technology with the utilization of computer chips. One of the major components of a computer is the chip; these are conducted of semiconductor materials and semiconductors that eventually wear out. A semiconductor is a material that is typically made of silicon and germanium; both of them are neither a good conductor of electricity nor a good insulator. These materials are then fixed to create an excess or lack of electrons (Semiconductor, 2010, para. 2). Integrated circuits grow old and die or are discontinued. This process can happen in many ways; modern chips as used in computers have millions of transistors printed on a small chip of silicon no bigger than a fingernail. Each microscopically transistor is connected to the others, on the surface of the chip, with even smaller aluminum or copper wires. Over the years, the thermal stress of turning the computer on and off can cause tiny cracks in the wires. As the computer warms up the wires can part and cause the computer to stop working. Even a few seconds of off-time can cool the system enough to allow the wires to re-connect, so your computer may work just fine for a few minutes, or hours, then after it warms up, it may fail, letting it cool off can bring it back to life for a few minutes or more (Computer Freezes and Crashes, 2010, para. 16). Of course, some chips are much more inclined to failure than others. The competition tries to gain an advantage on the market by building cheaper or faster chips; cheaper and faster means hotter and shorter-lived parts. Better quality equals higher prices; when the price goes up and nobody buys the products. Low quality products die of old age too early and they get a bad names, this causes products to not be sold. Most modern computers are constructed from the cheapest parts available. With this information being known, Intel, one of the best chip manufactures, designs their parts to be very vigorous and endure heat and malfunction. Intel was founded on July 18, 968, as Integrated Electronics Corporation. Intel Corporation is a worldwide semiconductor chip maker corporation based in Santa Clara, California, and is the worlds largest semiconductor chip maker, based on revenue. They invented the series x86 microprocessors; these processors are found in most personal computers (Intel, 2010, para. 20). Intel along with other competing companies is predicting no more mouse or keyboards by 2020. Right now with Intel-developed sensor and brain waves scientist are hoping they can find ways to harness brain waves to operate computers. This all would be done of course with consumer’s permission. Scientists believe that consumers would want the freedom gained by using the implant. The idea may be far-fetched now but 20 years ago tell a person that it would become almost necessary to carry a computer around; that idea would have been rebutted. Look around now, people cannot leave a computer or computer device home or even in a vehicle without feeling like something is missing, an almost naked feeling. Scientists believe that consumers will grow tired of dependence of computer interface. Whether it’s fishing out accessories or even just using the hands to interact, Scientists think consumers would prefer to manipulate various devices with their brains. Currently a research team from Intel is working on decoding human brain activity. The team has used Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (FMRI), these are machines that determine blood flow changes in certain areas of the brain based on what word or image the consumer is thinking of. This idea sounds farfetched but almost two years ago, scientist in the U. S. and japan announced that a monkey’s brain was used to control a humanoid robot. Scientist and the Intel team are currently working on getting to a point where it is possible to mentally type words by thinking about letters (Intel Chips in brains will control computers by 2020, 2010, para. 4). The story of the computer is amazing; to see how far technology has come is almost unreal. Evolving from the first computer the ENAIC, a huge machine that had thousands of tubes everywhere; computers are now small enough to be placed in a brief case for on the go use. Furthermore, with the everyday advancement of technology it won’t be long before farfetched ideas become a reality.

Case Study: Carl Rogers Self Centred Approach

Case Study: Carl Rogers Self Centred Approach Working Intensively with Clients Summary of Issues Identified 40 yrs old Recently separated from 20 year marriage; Two children daughter, 9yrs and son, 14yrs; daughter lives away from both parents, son predominantly resides with Julie Relationship with former partner amicable however re-partnered and has become hostile. Wants to further education/career Financially stable in former relationship, now non-financially secure; no assistance towards children’s’ financial needs. Concerned of impact of relationship breakdown on children; and father’s new relationship; Minimal family support; Isolation like feelings; depressive; difficulty coping and/or accommodating to the current changes in her life. Julie’s Case Study Initial consultation with Julie would enable to build a client-counsellor relationship and to undertake assessment in order to identify issues of her current position for development of agreement between her and me as to goals and tasks by achievement of those goals through treatment. More importantly identifying the source of what made bought her to the services, this being whether she is a voluntary or involuntary client as this can impact on the approach taken to achieve the most successful engagement process with the client as has been identified to the effect that â€Å"engagement for involuntary clients is often a different and more difficult process than engagement with voluntary clients due to the coercion of the legal system or significant others†[1] There are various structural frameworks for successful engagement in counselling a client that could be used however in this paper I am given a general background of Julie and based on that background (generally obtained through initial assessment) have summarised the issues (aforementioned) and believe that the main approach here to be taken, but not limited to is a â€Å"Self-Centred† approach and from which the theories of Carl Rogers will be relied upon. By applying Carl Rogers self-centred approach identification of the three core characteristics of such theory are relied upon, being the following[2]: Empathy (the counsellor trying to understand the client’s point of view) Congruence (the counsellor being a genuine person) Unconditional Positive Regard (â€Å"UPR†) (the counsellor being non-judgmental). Guided by this theory will best approach Julie’s personal situation as the non-directive therapy is likely to be of long term use for Julie. As Julie is showing emotional instability, identifying that there is no immediate threat of harm. In taking an empathetic approach with Julie is likely to make her more positive about opening up and giving her an outlet to speak about what she has sought therapy for. This in turn will allow a good rapport to initiate between myself and Julie. Congruence can assist with negative thoughts that Julie is experiencing regarding her education, skill set and employment possibilities. Furthermore it appears that Julie has experienced forms of demoralization by her former husband. Julie’s family history also requires assessment and ascertaining if she has come to acceptance with the death of her mother and recognition of such impact that this has or has previously caused on her approach in relationships and personal life. Unconditional Positive Regard fits with Julie’s present circumstances when analysing the now hostile relationship that has formed between her and her former husband. This will be by benefit in that she can attend to venting her frustration and allowing her to help disregard the thrust of the anger, frustration, and volatile nature of conflict with her former husband. Based on the evidence at hand to provide high quality of care relevant to Julie would involve direct and in-depth identification of her needs and being responsive to such will help assist the structure, application and result of therapy. Given her depression a high level of empathetic language and attendance in respectfulness is required. In achieving an even higher level of care ethical and holistic approaches are to be factored in also. In assisting treatment with Julie engagement with other specialised agencies would be of benefit in that they can provide more thorough assistance in the underlying issues for treatment progression. In respect of Julie’s emotional state I would highly recommend seeking assessment and ongoing treatment with her local general practitioner. This will assist in thorough diagnosis of her current mental health and, if as indicated, Julie is suffering depression from the impact of changes in her life, then this will allow for medical intervention in the form of prescribed medication to be used in the interim treatment. Julie has also been affected by a marital breakdown and is now facing a hostile relationship between her former partner and herself. Given the length of the relationship involving marriage, obtainment of assets and liabilities and children from the former relationship, in particular her son who is a minor aged 14 years, it would be of necessity to Julie to seek legal intervention to ascertain her legal rights and come bring the monetary and parental responsibility that exists to finality. Although at first recommendation would be to seek advice only and in this regard I would recommend her contacting a community legal centre in her area to obtain such relevant information. If in fact, further intervention were necessary from the outset of the advice received, arrangements could then be sought to facilitate engagement by way of mediation between herself and her former partner and in this regard advice to contact such services providing relationship mediation like Relationships Australia, Interrelate, CatholicCare, Anglicare or any other alike service details would be provided to Julie. With connecting Julie with one of the pre-mentioned services it will allow her to access more than just mediation given that the services are community family based, they can also offer Julie with information and provide further services for her concerns raised in relation to her children, in particular Damien. Julie expresses the desire for career development in accounting though lacks self-confidence believing that she is not able to as her employment and education has been limited. Julie has in effect been limited by non-completion of her higher education, parental responsibilities and her former partner insisting that she take on the role of full-time caregiver to the children however Julie has managed to maintain some part-time employment in a customer service role. Approach to be taken in assisting her goal, alongside therapy for improvement of self-confidence, and medical intervention by her local general practitioner, would be providing details or arranging an appointment for her to attend upon a career guidance counsellor. This would give her the networking tools to assess the possibilities and educational resources that can be offered to her and by seeking assistance from a professional in this area will provide her with further resources for educational and employment opportunities. Such services that would be provided to Julie, and their corresponding details would be training and/or educational institutions like TAFE, university enabling programs, WEA and other relevant local community institutions. Connecting Julie with employment agencies providing details to Julie of employment agencies that can assist in accountancy roles or facilitation of education such as Randstad or Hudson to assist in these aspects. Successful therapy would involving guiding Julie to be able to transition from her current circumstances and gain effective tools to recognise, process and deal with situations that arise assisting also in alleviating any future conditions that she may be susceptible to. This can be done by application of a recognised framework such that initial structure can be established, development of rapport between Julie and I; identification of the problems that exist; exploration of herself together with her perceptions and behaviours; the possible assessments and acquisition of environmental input such as assimilation, problem solving and decision making; creation of plan of action; continual follow up with Julie and the possibilities of development with additional strategies prior to termination. H’elena Gorton Student # 377 160 649 [1] (Cingolani, 1984; Behroozi, 1992; De Jong Berg, 2001). [2] http://www.counsellingtutor.com/counselling-approaches/person-centred-approach-to-counselling/

Daffyds Journey :: English Literature Essays

Daffyd's Journey His feet weren't going where he told them too!!! It was cold, so cold, and even though he knew where he was going, an advantage over most, he couldn't shake off the morbid feeling of doom, no matter how hard he tried. Guns were sounding in the distance, and although he was well away from the fighting, he was panicking. Amidst the feelings of doom and panic, he was confused. It wasn't even this bad on the front line!! Why was he feelign this way? Was his gut telling him the truth? As if out of nowhere, a man dropped out of the tree above him in a shower of leaves and twigs, and with an evil grin, blew him up. The old man sat up in his bed, waking with a start. For a moment, he was slightly disorientated. The adrenalin was still coursing through his body like a fire out of control. With a few breaths, he tried to calm himself. The old dream, he thought. I will never forget it, it will never let me out of its steely indifferent grasp. The veteran, who went by the name of David, was an old man now. His youth had deserted him, the war had aged him. He couldn't fight the dreams like he used to. But he did have wisdom and experience on his side, though he was hard-pressed to figure out how that could help. He cast around for another subject. His mother's mother was Welsh. His mother had brought him up Welsh, her name for him had been 'Daffyd'. He wondered why he remembered that. He was confused, he didn't know what he was feeling or why. He shook his head, and with some small sense of purpose, climbed out of bed. He had decided to walk down to the beach, which was only a street away, to clear his head. He knew not why he would do this, his worst memories were of a beach. He figured he was 'confronting his fears' like they do in the stories. It could work, stranger things had happened. David reached the beach, and made his way to the cliff that he had always loved as a little boy. This was his home, where he had grown upm where he had laughed, played, and where his mother had died. All because of him. He shuddered, trying not to think about it. He sat down on the mossy grass, and remembered.

Functions of Management Essay examples -- Business Management Managing

Functions of Management   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   It is not easy to manage an organization. It takes more than just business sense to know what you are doing when it comes to management procedures. There are a few strategies that can ensure the success of a business organization, but before you can determine those strategies, you have to know the four functions. The functions of management discussed in this paper will be planning, organizing, leading, and controlling. This paper will also give examples of how I apply these functions of management in my own personal organization.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Let me begin by stating, working for any company you begin to realize people are proud to work for companies that treat them well. They become connected to companies in more than an employer/employee relationship; they come to feel as if they are truly a part of an organization; not just one of the employees. Companies which are expanding to the global market will need even more to make all the positive contributions to ensure employees feel more than just workers.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Management takes planning the first function of management. Planning is determining what you want to accomplish, working out ahead how it is to be done, deciding who will be responsible for each step, and having every phase written down. Good management applies the steps of good planning to each part of the organization. To achieve good planning results without any problems, goals and objectives should be set. From these dec...

Enrollment forecasting methodology

Virtually, forecasting plays everywhere a major role in human life, especially in making future decisions such as weather forecasting, university enrollment, production, sales and finance, etc. Based on these forecasting results, we can prevent damages to occur or get benefits from the forecasting activities.Up to now, many qualitative and quantitative forecasting models were proposed. However, these models are unable to deal with problems in which historical data take form of linguistic constructs instead of numerical values. In recent years, many methods have been proposed to deal with forecasting problems using fuzzy time series. In this paper, we present a new method to predict the calendar day for average Arabian Gulf Oil Company using fuzzy time series approach based on average lengths of intervals. A visual-based programming is used in the implementation of the proposed model.Results obtained demonstrate that the proposed forecasting model can forecast the data effectively and efficiently Keywords: Fuzzy time series, Forecasting, Fuzzy sets, Average-based lengthl . Forecasting the size of any phenomenon in future is important and helpful for understanding behavior of phenomenon along time. It is impossible to make future plans to face the phenomenon without defining its future dimensions and identifying shape and modes of complicated process, especially when it is related to future forecasting. Making decisions depends completely on accuracy of forecasting.It is evident that forecasting plays major role in our daily life. The accurate and the most efficient forecasting may support making correct decisions to raise accuracy of our expectations up to 100%. This may be impossible, yet we try to reduce forecasting errors. In order to solve forecasting problems, many researchers proposed several methods and different models. One of these models is traditional time series analysis, uni-variant and multi-variant. However, traditional time series has wide applic ations, but it must satisfy proper conditions to be successful.For example, 50 up to 100 bservations at least are needed to achieve Autoregressive and Integrated Moving Average Models (ARIMA) and average zero is needed to achieve autoregressive. Traditional time series has been applied in many fields such as pollution monitoring, blood pressure estimation, etc. This problem has been studied widely in statistics areas and neural networks. However, in practical life, there are regression models in which the uncertainty accompanied to the model is because of vagueness, not because of neither randomness nor both of them.In these models, probability theory cannot be pplied and fuzzy sets theory is applied, where variables are foggy i. e. declarative variables are not fixed and scaling of these variables is not expressed by a point, but by an interval or linguistic variables [1, 3]. 2. FUZZY LOGIC Fuzzy logic [1 1], is a form of logic which has used in some expert systems and artificial i ntelligence applications. It was first proposed in 1965 by the Iranian scientist Lutfi Zadeh, at University of California, where he developed it as a better method of data processing.However, his theory didn't find a wide interest until 1974, where fuzzy logic was used to control a steam engine. Since then, applications of fuzzy logic kept developing until the manufacturing of fuzzy logic chip which have been used in many products such this science. There are many reasons for scientists to improve fuzzy logic. For example, development of computers and software founded the need to invent or program systems that are capable of dealing with ambiguous information to mimic human thinking.However, this created a problem since computers can only deal with exact and accurate data. This problem caused occurrence of expert systems and artificial intelligence. Fuzzy logic is a theory for building such systems. Fuzzy set theory has many useful achievements in different fields and it aims at app roximation of professional knowledge that contains vagueness in human thinking. Figure 1 illustrates the difference between traditional and fuzzy set theories. Fuzzy logic simply reflects how do people think and try to represent our feelings by words, decisions making and our common sense.So, fuzzy logic models are being increasingly used in time series analysis, where they are important for dealing with linguistic values and other models in order to yield better forecasting results. Time Series is defined as a sequence of events easured in successive times at definite intervals. It was widely used in economic systems such as stock index and interest. Also, it was used in metrology, especially in wind speed, temperature, pressure, Figure 1: Traditional and fuzzy sets 3.FUZZY TIME SERIES Fuzzy time series is another concept to solve forecasting problems in which the historical data are linguistic values. Fuzzy time series based on Zadeh's works [1 1], Song and Chissom [7], first prop osed a forecasting model called Fuzzy Time Series, which provided a theoretic framework to model a special dynamic process hose observations are linguistic values. The main difference between the traditional time series and fuzzy time series is that the observed values of the former are real numbers while the observed values of the latter are fuzzy sets or linguistic values.In the following, some basic concepts of fuzzy time series are briefly reviewed Definition 1: Let U ,u2 un } be a universe of discourse (universal set); a fuzzy set A of U is defined fA (u ) / u fA (u ) / un ,where fA is a membership function of a given set A , fA [0,1]. Definition 2 If there exists a fuzzy relationship R(t – 1, t), such that F(t) =F(t ), where is an arithmetic operator, then F(t) is said to be caused by F(t – 1). The relationship between F(t) and – 1) can be denoted by – 1) Definition 3 Suppose F(t) is calculated by F(t – 1) only, and – 1) R(t,t-l).For a ny t, if R(t – 1, t) is independent of t, then F(t) is considered a timeinvariant fuzzy time series. Otherwise, F(t) is timevariant. Definition 4 Suppose – 1) and F(t)= A], a fuzzy logical relationship can be defined as Ai AJ where Ai and AJ are called the left-hand side and the right-hand side of the fuzzy logical relationship, respectively. 4. REVIEW OF RELATED WORKS Many studies have interested in fuzzy time series and have been applied in various fields including university enrollment.Fuzzy time series had proved its efficiency in forecasting as a good new method for predicting linguistic values. Song and Chisson [9, 10] first introduced the method of fuzzy time series, humidity and rainfall. In addition, time series was used in geophysical records including indexed measurements, times of earthquake, radiological activities, industrial production, rates of idleness, etc. therefore, they are considered as founders of fuzzy time series science. Also, in 1994, they in troduced a eries.Chen [1] presented a new method for forecasting university enrollment using fuzzy time series historical data enrollments of the university of Alabama from 1971 to 1992, the proposed method is more efficient than the proposed method by Song and Chissom, due to the fact that the proposed method uses simplified arithmetic operation rather than the complicated MaxMin composition operation. Hwang [8] proposed a new method on fuzzification to revise Song and Chissom's method. He used a different triangle fuzzification method to Fuzzify crisp values.His method involved determining an interval of xtension from both sides of crisp value in triangle membership function to get a variant degree of membership. The result got a better average forecasting error, in addition, the influences of factors and variables in a fuzzy time series model such as definition area, number and length of intervals and the interval of extension in triangle membership function were discussed in det ailsStep 2: Define the universe of discourse U. Find the maximum Dmax and the minimum Dmin among all Dh. For easy partitioning of U, choose two small numbers Dl and D2 as two proper positive numbers. The purpose of Dl and D2 is to make the lower and upper bounds of U become multiple of hundreds, thousands, etc. The universe of discourse U is then defined by: U = Dt-ntn -Dl , Drnax+D2 Step 3: Determine the appropriate length of interval L. Here, the average-based length method (Huarng, 2001 b) can be applied to determine the appropriate L.The length of interval L is computed according to the Table 1: Base mapping table Range Base 0. 1-1. 0 0. 1 1. -10 11-100 10 101-1000 a) Calculate all the absolute differences between the values Dh-l and Dh as the first differences, and then compute the average of the first differences. b) Take one-half of the average as the length. c) Find the located range of the length and determine the base from Table 1 d) According to the assigned base, round t he length as the appropriate L.Then the number of intervals m, is computed by: D max+D2-D Then U can be partitioned into equal-length intervals Assume that the m intervals are Step4: Define fuzzy sets from the universe of discourse: f(un)(3) Ai=A11+A22+†¦.. +Ai l Then fuzzify the time series. First determine some linguistic values A1, A2, †¦ , An. Second, defined fuzzy sets on U. The fuzzy sets Ai are expressed as follows: 10. 500 0. 510 . 50 00. 51 0. 5 Step 5: fuzzify the historical data. If the value of Dh is located in the range of ui, then it belongs to fuzzy sets A'.All Dh must be classified into the corresponding fuzzy sets. However, fuzzify the historical data and give fuzzy set to each year's historical data. If the historical data belongs to Ai at year t, the historical data of that year can be written by A'. But usually one historical data to ifferent A1, the need to find out maximum degree of each year's historical data belonging to each A1. Step 6: Establish f uzzy logical relationships (FLRs) for all fuzzified data, derive the fuzzy logical relationships based on Definition (3).The fuzzy logical relationship which have the same left-hand sides is like Ai Ak, which denotes that if the Dh-lvalue of time t-1 is AJ then that of time t is Ak Table 2: Fuzzy relationship Ak Ar A1 Am 0. 5 um -2 um -1 um Where ui n) is the element and the number below ‘/'is the membership of ui to Then follow the rules for determining the degree of the membership of the istorical data Yi belonging to interval u'. The general triangular membership function is expressed as below: Step 7: establish the fuzzy logic relationship groups (FLRG).The derived fuzzy logical relationships can be arranged into fuzzy logical relationship groups based on the same fuzzy numbers on the left-hand sides of the fuzzy logical relationships. The fuzzy logical relationship groups are like the following: AJI Step 8: The forecasting of the historical data is based on heuristic rule s proposed by chen (1996) and outlined as follows.